June – A challenging month for Ether
June has been a difficult month for the cryptocurrency market, with Ether specifically closing Q2 2022 in a negative position due to decreased market interest and worsening macroeconomic conditions. Economists have cautioned that a global recession may be imminent, particularly if central banks continue to act too aggressively and inflation continues to rise.
The U.S. Federal Reserve took a more aggressive stance to combat inflation by raising interest rates, which tends to negatively affect risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank would not allow the economy to fall into a “higher inflation regime,” even if it means raising interest rates to levels that could jeopardize economic growth.
ETH бағасының болжамы
Surveys indicate that institutional investors remain bearish on ETH, and this negative sentiment is not confined to institutional investors alone. The spot markets are also feeling the pressure, with sell-offs resuming. Given this environment, ETH may struggle to maintain its position above the $1,000 mark.
Past price patterns for ETH in Q3
Historical data suggests that Ethereum may experience further losses over the next three months, as during previous bear markets in 2011, 2014, and 2018, Ethereum’s price consistently weakened during the third quarter of the year.
Daniel Cheung, Co-founder of Pangea Fund, believes that July or August could be the most challenging months for cryptocurrencies. Daniel Cheung commented:
Strong correlation with the U.S. stock market
Due to the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish approach and the unusually high inflation data, Ethereum has recently been trading with a correlation of 0.8 to Nasdaq, which means the cryptocurrency closely mirrors patterns in traditional stock markets. These patterns are unlikely to change in the coming months.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, predicts that cryptocurrencies could drop by another 70% in the third quarter, while Chris Burniske, a partner at Placeholder Ventures, a crypto-focused venture capital firm, suggests that the market may reach its bottom in the second half of 2022.
Technical analysis with support & resistance levels
Since mid-November, the cryptocurrency market has lost over half its value, and attention now turns to whether Ether will maintain its position above the critical $1,000 support level.
After reaching highs of over $3580 in April 2022, Ether (ETH) has seen a decline of more than 70%. The price is now stabilizing above the $1,000 support, but a break below this level could indicate that Ethereum may test the $800 support next.
Bearish traders already holding a position in Ethereum can be confident that the downtrend will persist unless the cryptocurrency forms a higher high. Ethereum’s price is also closely tied to Bitcoin, and if Bitcoin falls below the $17,000 support, Ethereum could hit new lows.
The current price of Ethereum stands at approximately $1130, with a market cap of $137 billion. On the chart (from January 2022), I have marked the current support and resistance levels to help traders gauge potential price movements.
Ethereum remains in a “bearish phase.” However, if the price breaks above the $1,500 resistance, the next target could be around $1,700. If the price falls below $1,000, this would signal a “SELL,” opening the way for a possible drop to $800.
қорытынды ой
Many analysts predict that the third quarter of 2022 will be a challenging period for Ethereum. The consensus is that Ethereum’s price is likely to decline further before hitting the bottom of the ongoing bear market. Economists have warned of a potential global recession, particularly if central banks continue to take aggressive action. Bearish traders who are already holding Ethereum can be confident that the downtrend will persist unless a higher high is made. Ethereum’s price also follows Bitcoin closely, and if Bitcoin falls below $17,000, we could see further lows for Ethereum.
